Computer core logic: Technological change + policy drive

Published on:

2023-05-08 15:43

As a typical upstream industry, the main source of downstream demand of the computer industry is the informatization demand of the G end (government) and the B end (large, small and medium-sized enterprises), and the informatization demand of the G end and the B end is influenced by technological changes and policies. Therefore, the continuous growth logic of the computer industry in the past 15 years is as follows: On the one hand, policies accelerate the increase of localization rate and informatization rate; on the other hand, technological changes lead to new business models and market demands (such as Internet and cloud, among which Internet has been falsified 15 years later).

The introduction of national policies tends to have a certain periodicality, and in each cycle there is a direction supported by key policies. Although the development of technology is continuous, for the computer industry, the speed of technological change is slow and casual, and it often takes a long time to form a substantial breakthrough. Therefore, the demand of the computer industry also forms a certain periodicity with the periodicity of policies and technologies. The fundamental factor of the change of the demand end cycle is the change of technology and industry, while the driving force and signal of the market start are policies, and the variable of the market fluctuation is the 3-8 year replacement cycle of products in various segments.

In the past 15 years, the technological change in the computer industry has mainly experienced several major eras, such as hardware popularization, software informatization rate increase, Internet mobile Internet, cloud computing, etc. In the next five to ten years, the focus of technological change is expected to continue to iterate in 5G, AIOT, artificial intelligence and other fields. Although the technological changes in the computer industry are slow and casual, each technological change can bring new business models and new demand space, which may lead to major changes in the industrial pattern, and thus bring long-term investment opportunities.

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